General upcoming media developments

Over the course of last week, I chatted with several different people about developments in media technology and how the developments have been affecting the “old media”, who seem to be just straight up confused on what’s happening in their respective marketplaces.  And since some folks seemed interested in that hearing more on sort of thing, I thought I’d just quick write up some of the points in the chats. 

I thought it would be quick, anyway. 

Instead, it turned into like 3,000 words of text that should probably go along with a boring-ass multimedia presentation that someone else can put together if they want to.

I will still post all it, however, in case someone’s looking for something to read.  But because most readers of this blog aren’t as excited about new media tech developments as much as they are excited about that picture of Palin’s daughter flipping the bird, I threw in a few swear words to spice things up.

So check this shit out:

To fit into the new “media ecosystem” (it’s more like zoo, actually), leading national and regional newspapers will, in roughly the next two years, have improved their weekend print editions, reduced the circulation of their daily editions (but keep the daily print for the breakfast readers), and use their web presence to add transparency to their reporting.

With newspapers changing their production cycles and outlets, to fit into the same media ecosystem, all major television programming with be interactive with the web, and news outlets will use their personalities to curate events and information for its viewers.  Additionally, as the line between television sets and computer monitors/on-air and on-line starts to diminish, “on demand” programming will become ubiquitous.

And these developments will be used by a very sizable portion of American society before the end of 2010. 

First off, we all know it’s pretty clear that television and newsprint, and the glossy magazines and the alt weeklies, have been spun around by the web.  Those of us under 30 take things like web design, blogs, online video, mobile services, et al. pretty much for granted, but national and regional media institutions are still really, really struggling with many of the basics like blogs, comments, design and application usage. 

Unfortunately, the timing for these changes is also pretty hectic.  Now that a new generation of producers/consumers—some call them a re-generation, which is gross—finally pushes past the tipping point of the demographic shift in the United States, media outlets are trying to find new ways to connect to the new audiences that are using this fast changing technology.  Blah, blah, blah, that’s nothing new. 

But do you know what I’ve been really into lately?  The Sunday New York Times… in print.

I’m not kidding, I love it.  The Sunday New York Times is rich with information and perspective, and not only that, it’s accessible to read and it comes at exactly the right time.  There’s no more effective address of the “when” of the audience than the thick and juicy New York Times showing up right to my door on Sunday morning when I’m hungover, have a fresh cup of coffee, and have my only bit of free time in the week.

As the archetypal digital citizen, it might surprise some that I’m really getting into a print newspaper.  But while I’d never, ever, ever, not in a million years subscribe to a daily paper, I’m very into the weekend Times because of it delivers what I want (trustworthy, researched, valuable information), when I want it (when I have to read the paper, Sunday morning), and how I want it (to my door in easy to read print). 

Yes, most local print papers also have beefier weekend editions.  But most local papers don’t contain the functional information that is important to me.  I’ve tried reading local weekend papers, and after taking away the national/international AP content, the re-hashed Op-Ed pieces from the same perennial voices, the classifieds and other ad sections, there’s not much there—certainly nothing that I couldn’t just as well receive in an easier fashion from another source.

Instead of putting out deeper, even inter-connected with mobile, information, most large local papers have unfortunately focused on converting their daily production cycles/print editions into finished products that compete in the 24-hour cycle of the web, adding things like blogs, video, forums, comments, new platforms, etc. 

Doing so has, along with buyouts and cutbacks and attrition, drained resources from producing a quality product that gives me, the reader, some depth, breadth and connection to the information that I would look for in a print story.

Many people have been making the point that papers should be richer in content for awhile.  People don’t read books online and they seldom read magazine articles online.  The computer is hard to read on the toilet, everyone knows this.  Video?  Online.  Blogs and microblogs?  Online.  Breaking news from the wire?  Online.  Why not start printing things that require newsprint space? 

Competing with the 24 hour news cycle of the web is one of the great rouses of the digital age.  The rush to the web by national organizations and regional outlets misses the the huge “scales of economy” used by the web (the long tail really only works on an international level, not in a saturated market), but only adds more competition to the finished product. Also, the promise of low overhead with the web is great.  But there’s still the simple fact that web outlets do one thing: they give people information that they want, how they want it, and when they want it, through new technology. 

Newspapers have in the past been able to control the “when” of information.  With the web and new “on demand” television technology, this isn’t the case anymore.  Recognizing this, successful papers will use the new technology to add the important element of transparency to their reporting—What are reporters working on?  How are they finding information?  Can some information be crowd-sourced?

Two successful examples of this direction that is outside of print papers: New York Magazine and TalkingPointsMemo.  New York Magazine runs a few very successful, always updated blogs that feature nice photos, the latest breaking info that pertains to their content, and often comments on what’s coming up in their print magazine.  And they’re doing just an amazing job.  Check this out: 

The number of paid subscribers to New York has grown significantly over the past three years — from 320,800 in the first half of 2005 to 359,588 in the first half of 2008 — a jump of over 38,000 or 12%. Introductory annual subscription rates are up by 25% — rising gradually from $15.97 in 2004 to $19.97 in 2008.

The expansion of Talking Points Memo is exactly this model, minus the depth that would be provided by a weekend edition.  Not only does Josh Marshall constantly update on breaking news, which is great, but he’s very open on what he’s working on and even asks for assistance in quickly combing through document dumps, etc.  And in doing so, he’s built an incredible integrity, as well as developed a very loyal and interactive readership.

It’s also telling that most newspapers still don’t understand the importance of “scooping” themselves online.  Here’s something that Ed Kohler told me: the editor of techcrunch posts a title and then works from there, because that’s all it takes to stake a claim on the web these days is a headline.  Fill in the deets from there.  Since most institutions can’t beat that, they should position themselves to deal with the critical mass of people when they are aware of the story, and then give them the depth.  

On the same side of that rapid information coin, everyone who works in media knows is that reporters, in order to gain insight to the world of information that’s out there, need time.  They need beats and connections and analytic/investigative periods.  That doesn’t—and can’t—happen in the 24 cycle.  It can happen when the goal of a finished piece for a Sunday article are being put together.  (Not to mention the fact that UNC Journalism Professor Henry Fuhrmann recently said “editing for the web is like drinking from a fire hose”.)  The web, conversely, immediately reacts and collects opinions and data on very short turnarounds.  And that’s why so many bloggers aren’t reporters.

The combination of a new weekly cycle with slim daily runs for folks who read the paper in print at breakfast and a heftier print product on the weekend that really gives people a full look at local events, issues and developments maximum physical and digital position in local markets and also creates a niche online, where the market has flattened. 

To underscore that point, many newspaper are in fact already going this direction.  To go back to the New York Times, they’re positioning themselves to break national/international news, but to also offer the depth and seasoned perspective that comes with a strong media institution.  Locally, the City Pages has also recently ramped up its posting schedule to, like, 20 posts a day to match the pace of the online game while saving material for the weekly print editions.

So that’s partially where print will be heading.  What about TV? 

First, take a quick look at the popularity of the iphone.  Now imagine all those folks out there with t-mobile who want to have iphones, but can’t get them because of their service plans.  Then enter the Android phone , which drops, not coincidentally and quite affordable-ly, two months before Christmas.  Now we have an entire generation of 20- and 30-somethings with smart phones. 

At the same time, take a quick look at the folks snatching up newer, better, bigger, cheaper televisions, along with DVRs and Netflix boxes and Apple boxes and larger flat panel computer monitors and supplements, and on and on.    

We thus have an audience that’s constantly plugged into small information sharing devices and applications—twitter on the blackberry, GPS on the iPhone, etc.—and a vast availability of larger screens and new connections in our homes.

(My dad, for example, asked me a few months ago how he could get the computer plugged into the television in order to watch online shows on the TV.  Best Buy employees field questions like that more and more, particularly since the boomers have started coming into the digital age.)

The technology landscape clearly shapes the media ecosystem.  With newspapers changing their production cycles and outlets, in two years all major television programming with be interactive with the web, it will use personality to curate events and information for its viewers, and it will use a greater variety of formats to tell a greater variety of stories.  Additionally, as the line between television sets and computer monitors/ on-air and on-line starts to diminish, “on demand” programming will become ubiquitous. 

Contrary to a lot of trending forecasts, however, people won’t be watching TV on their mobile devices.  (When faced with a choice between a screen that fits in your pocket or the couch and a big TV, couch and big TV will mostly win out .)

In fact, it’s already happening with homes streaming Vudu or recording anything on DVRs, while it’s also happening to people sitting at their desktops to watch The Daily Show on Hulu or Lost on iTunes, etc.

But while the web is delivering news and video and television programs whenever a viewer wants, very little of television is changing its programming, particularly the many different TV news programs throughout the day on national cable channels or local newscasts.

Very quickly, let me also just underscore the importance of the future changes of television with this point: television programming virtually shut down last year with the writer’s strike because of impending changes to the way programming is consumed.  So these changes are already underway and already a big deal.

Let me make that earlier point again: in light of the new tidal wave of “on demand”, television news surprisingly hasn’t changed to address the new style of consumption.  Cable news repeats sound bytes all day, ESPN runs the same Sports Center over and over, and regional news casts stick to their hard times of 5 p.m. or 6 p.m. or 10 p.m. and don’t fit at all into a format for mobile viewing, either online or on a DVR.

Think about that for a second.  Even though we’re surrounded by ever changing, ever accessible, ever niche information, most television programming remains locked into a format specific to a time and to a singular audience.  It’s almost exactly like choosing between two stores, the web store that carries every product and is open all the time and delivers, and the TV store that’s open only for half hour blocks three times a day and only offers certain products at certain times. 

There’s a real challenge there with television, but also real potential for renewal. Slightly different than print, television news is about delivering information with personality.  And with John Stewart being the most trusted name in news, personality is now more vital than ever.  Even more, as the line between on-line and on-air diminishes, the personality element for guiding someone through information remains constant.  (Just look at all the personalities who have developed online, particularly for info-tainment shows.)

In a media ecosystem flush with the info fragments spewed into the 24 hour news cycle, viewers/users at the end of the day want to know what’s worth knowing and they want to know it from someone they trust.  And such is the TV model.  But that “end of the day” happens at all different times now and we want to know so much more than just the short explanations that have to happen before station break.

Here’s an example: you get home from work at 6:10 p.m. and have been reading all day that the bailout bill didn’t pass, and you want to know how it will personally affect you.  Wouldn’t it be nice if you could, on your couch at 8:10 p.m., have someone tell you how it will affect you generically, and for more information you just head to another segment?  And then just watch the new The Office because it’s already stored in your viewer? 

In a year and a half, you’ll be able to easily replay any of the programs that you’re interested in and cursor over to additional information.   

Take a look at what Frontline does to see what I’m talking about.  Frontline puts their programming on television on schedule, of course, but also on-line.  And when it’s aired in both locations, tabs creep into  the frame in case you want to click over to another interview.  Also, picture the Hulu viewer, but instead of just getting the sharing data, you’ll mouse over the sidebars for related material, like linkage out to your Facebook profile. 

Outside the context of an overall programming schedule, programming will break out of it’s restrictive formats for airing and change in lengths.  News segments can then be presented in short or long form edits that appear on-air or on-line, and the additional space on the web can add transparency to the curating process.   

Mobile devices won’t match this viewing experience.  Nor will they allow you to read a story.  But mobile devices will interface both with the digital sides of the new newspaper and digital models, so you can coordinate decision points for events on your device.  (TV just told you that the Twin Cities marathon is coming up and shutting down some streets?  Cursor over the frame and click on “send traffic map to phone”.)  

Both newsprint enterprises and broadcast enterprises, then, have radically different approaches in function to both the everyday info fragments and the big “watercooler” story.  However, the core functions of each model are still retained, only streamlined and supplemented in the new media ecosystem.   

Let me also just point out that most mid- to large sized organizations understand the crushing effects on advertising with a flat market; not only do you have to compete with your own regional market, you have to compete with the Google and the ebay, etc.  Since that affects bottom lines, it’s usually more understood than the simple fact that the exact same thing happens with design.  If a user looks at 10 webpages, 5 are national and look cool, 3 are local and look cool, and you’re in the remaining 2 that look bad, people will go elsewhere to look.  And in a complicated new media ecosystem, there’s a lot of places and times for people to look elsewhere.

UPDATE: While none of the stations in the Twin Cities broadcast tonight’s Senate debate (MPR did have it on the radio), our friends at the Uptake live-streamed it to web.  That’s right, the only place to actually see the DEBATE FOR U.S. SENATE without driving to Rochester was on an online independent news site.  On top of the live streaming, btw, the Uptake will also be posting a higher quality video for you to download and watch, of course, at your convenience.